Last NFL Regular week

This is a terrible week normally as most teams are looking at the post season, but as always I have a few picks.

I will post early games first then the late games tomorrow.I really like the spread on the Steelers but thats a late game and will follow.

Jets +3 ,

Back the Dolphins ATS at -3

Nothing more would satisfy the Dolphins more than putting the JETS out of the playoffs. The JETS need to win and some great luck too. But Mark Sanchez has shown that he is in capable at this level and this will be his last game as a New York Jet. The Dolphins will find it hard to score against this team, but in essence the JETS will find out what their QB is made of. I feel sorry for the guy but even more sorry for the fans as they are a good team.

49 ers v Rams

Back 49 ers ATS at -10.5

The spread is big at -10.5 but they want the bye and they want to win this game to get. The Rams are poor and have won only two games this year. St. Louis team has lost six straight games now by a 150-53 score. I think the 49 ers will push over the Rams and beat the spread, although if you can get 9.5 that would be nice.

Carolina v Saints

Back the Saints ATS -7.5 (BUT GOING)

Don’t forget that Brees needs to expand his record, as Mr Brady is only 190 yards behind him. It will be important for the Saints to keep winning and they are so tough at the line of scrimmage that the spread to me looks good.

Saint Stephens Day NFL Cracker

Well call it what you may this is a Saints game all the way for me. I am taking the -7 points , while Drew will be chasing the Dan  Marino record of the 80s, needing another 305 yards. The Saints are through to the Superbowl playoff but looking to win the Division at home. The Falcons will have a wild card spot and I feel their minds will be on the wild card game opposed to any pyrrhic  win over the Saints.


Back the Saints -7 ATS


Merry Christmas.








Very little to choose from this weekend in the NFL.


But I think the below are worth a festive punt.


Chargers v Detroit
Back Detroit -2 Pts ATS


The Lions should head into the post season by taking care of the Chargers at home. I know the Chargers have been playing for their jobs in the last few weeks, but have come good at the wrong time. There is too much variation in the Lions attack. The Chargers Big Air plays work well - but for me they are a roll of a dice. Against a smart defence Big Air plays can be returned to your own end zone if your not perfect.


Broncos v Bills
Back Broncos -3 Pts ATS


The Broncos should be able to get past a Bills team that really needs to find themselves and their game plan. Fitzpatrick is not a bad QB, in fact he has bundles of talent. But without a gamplan he looks flat and is then prone to errors. Tebow keeps getting better and better and last week-ends defeat against the master wont have hurt.


49ers v Seahawks
Back the 49ers -1Pt ATS
San Francisco has yet to give up a rushing touchdown. With a first round bye at stake I think the 49ers will dominate a low scoring game,  I do like the ATS. The Seahawks numbers don't stack up for me on offence and the 49ers will be looking as ever to give themselves the best chance of lifting the Lombardi. 


Giants v Jets
Back Giants +3 Pts ATS
Small wagers in this game, it looks like a straight decision on which QB will perform in the air. Well I have made my views known about Mark Sanchez and as much as I dislike the Giants (Jets fan) I cant back a Jets team with Sanchez at the wheel.

HAPPY CHRISTMAS

Thursday Night Turkey Texan Stuffing

This is Houston's best opportunity to finally win in Indianapolis. But I am on the Colts all the way here.

Having their first defeat in more than two months, the Texans visit a  Colts team looking to build on its first win.

Colts had been 15-1 in this series before losing two of the last three meetings, including a season-opening 34-7 defeat at Houston on Sept. 11. Bizarrely the Texans are 0-9 all-time at Indi. This is the first time to play there without having to face Manning.

Indianapolis (1-13) is coming off its first win; shocking Tennessee 27-13.Texans secured their first postseason berth and division title in Week 14. The Texans find themselves in a similar situation Thursday and likely know better than to overlook a Colts team that has plenty to celebrate following a 0-13 start.

Indianapolis rallied in the second half to defeat the Titans, posting its first victory without Manning in more than 14 years. Making a third consecutive start, Dan Orlovsky was just 11 of 17 for 82 yards but threw for the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter, and no Colts passes were intercepted for the first time since Week 5. Donald Brown carried 16 times for a career-high 161 yards, including an 80-yard TD run late in the fourth.

Rookie T.J. Yates, thrown under centre with season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart, also had a forgettable performance as he went 19 of 30 for 212 yards and two interceptions.

Back the Colts +6.5

Back the Colts on the Straight also

Play the overs at 40

Late game NFL Post

Nothing in the early games grabbed me, too dodgy at this time for some of the teams.

But in the late games I like the look of the below:

New England v Denver
Back the Pats -7 points

I do like Tebow but Brady is in vintage form and this will be a lesson for the rookie by one of the masters of the game, and that's from a jets fan.Broncos cant cook up a good defence when the game-plan.

Jets v Eagles

I don't like the look of the jets going into this game, I think the eagles will be much better in the offence. This is the type of game a seasoned coach like Andy Reid , take - 3 the points with Eagles.

NFL Sunday

Nothing in the early....but my late games picks are


Oakland +11.5 Points ATS V GB Packers
- When will GB rest players and move into the auto-pilot for the play-offs, maybe tonight.


Broncos -2.5 Points ATS v The Bears
- The Bears without Forte are not the same and Mr Cutler is also missing. Tebow seems to be taking over and i expect the -2.5 to be beaten by the Broncos.

Chargers -6.5 Points ATS v Buffalo Bills
A very old AFL rival match sees the Chargers chance their luck on some results to get to the play-offs. The Bills and the Chargers are poor teams but i have a feeling some of the Chargers are playing for the livelihood, including the coach.


The late game sees the Cowboys and the Giants go head to head - cracking game. I will send out a picks for that later.

NFL Sunday Night- Early Late Game

Before I launch into my 80% strike rate last week (4 from 5) I think I need to tell you that you can avail of my weekend bet: Green Bay Packers -6.5 Pts v Giants. For me, this is my bet of the weekend and I think it deserves a triple play.


Late game pick is Green Bay -6.5 pts ATS - , early picks are as follows: -

Bronco’s v Vikings
Back Broncos +1.5 pts ATS

As much as I dislike all the Tebow nonsense, the QB plays well and has matured quickly into a consistent QB. The Vikings have had a terrible season and it looks likely that Adrian Peterson their star RB will be missing or at least limping. Chris Ponder (who?) is now the number choice for the Vikings as McNabb was released last week; Soon to be appearing at the New York Jets though.
So the overall play by the Broncos, capped with Tebow's ability to make plays should allow them to win and your getting +1.5 pts before a ball is kicked.

Jets v Redskins
Back Redskins +3 ATS

This match up has been a tight affair in the past. Last weeks win over the Bills should help the JETS, but I am not sure that Mark Sanchez has what it takes and his luck will run-out against the Redskins. Mark has had too many interceptions , that’s his big weakness and the JETS know they hang on a thread when he hits the field. He hit a career hit in TD's last week but only completed 48 percent of passes.

The Redskins are a consistent team and should win. Rex Grossman is a seasoned QB playing well at present. I think the JETS defence can contain him but I have no reason to think that Sanchez will out pass him.

The Monday Night Game

Saints v Giants
Back Saints -6.5

Tonight's game is not the easiest to figure out. The Saints are electric and unbeaten at home and the Giants are erratic. The Giants are capable of solid performances; but equally can turn up flat and sluggish. I am not convinced that I will have a bet in this game, but there is a bit of 4/5 with Betfair if you take the Saints at -6.5.

I just think that this game will boil down to which ever team allows more space for receivers to make plays. If the Saints get their running game going with Sproles & Co, then it could make life difficult for the Giants.In addition some of Mannings throws have been out of character and I think that the Saints pose a bigger threat on turnovers.


Back the Saints -6.5 @ 4/5 or better if you can find it.

Sunday Night Late Game

New England v Eagles
Back NE -3

This is my bet of the weekend , basically one of the most erratic teams in the NFL are the Eagles. Tom Brady, I feel, likes playing against them as his style of attack works well against their defence. To be fair the Eagles are playing well, but their injury list is not helping and they have not beaten the Pats since 1999 (that's not a cue to all you Prince fans !). These games have been tight in the past but I think Vince Young is going to be under severe pass-defence-pressure tonight and Brady, well, sometimes it feels like he can slow down a game to pick his pass.

Denver v Chargers
Back Chargers -4.5

This is a must win game for the chargers who will kiss their post season goodbye and Norv will kiss his head coach job goodbye too. All of the stats say that the Chargers should win this by a TD. But if Rivers keeps going as he is; then the stats on turnovers will hit the roof. However, I may eat my words but I am willing to give the Chargers one more go to show their ability.

Sunday Night Early Games

Here are my picks for the early games - the rest of the night looks more interesting.


Bills v JETS
Back the Bills +9 points


The Bills look like a free-fall team, but that's when your most dangerous.Therefore
+9 points and more in places is too,too much. I am backing the Bills ATS at +9 points.
Hopefully Sanchez has a lousy game and Rex Ryan then finally decides to replace him.
But as both teams are 5-5 this is a crunch game and I dont like the look of Sanchez and his turnovers.


Texans v Jaguars
Back the Texans -6 points


Injuries and all considered; this game should go to the Texans. The ATS IS -6 points and that's good enough for me. Their receiving and running structure should be able to get past the Jags who almost rely on Jones Drew to come up with big plays - but not tonight.

Turkey teasers! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry late blog my net is giving grief!

Tonights games

Back each one seperately and one tri bet.

Packers
Dolphins
49'ers

All on the spread

Good luck and sorry for the brief blog, but needs must.

The Monday Night Game

Back the Chiefs at +17.5


This week the Chiefs face the Patriots in the Gillete stadium. By all accounts the Chiefs look like they will get a roasting as their regular QB and ex-Patriot Matt Cassel is out for the season. Step in Tyler Palko, hardly a household name and boy will he be under the flack tonight.


Kansas have one hope, keep the ball on the ground and run it all night long. That's a fine plan except for one thing - Tom Brady's 2 minute drill down the field is unstoppable right now. It is always difficult though to gauge a new QB as he is unknown, but unknown for a reason.But equally difficult when your defence do not have a book on the player.


So everyone will back the Patriots at -17. Some are going a few points over that also. I think Tom Brady will be relishing this one to install the Patriots firmly at the top of their division before next weeks game against the Eagles, but this is a must win game for the Chiefs and the games have always been relatively close.


I am back the Chiefs at +17.5

Sunday Night Early Picks

9.15 Game
Backing The Chicago Bears  v Chargers
Bears are -3.5 or -4 ATS 


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EARLY GAME PICKS WITH LATE GAME PICKS TO FOLLOW!


Oakland v Vikings
Back Oakland +1 ATS


The Vikings are in free fall and the beleaguered Vikings will struggle against a team that has its injuries, but seems to have found itself after Al Davis left the building. Maybe he is working the magic , but whatever it is ; they keep doing it.Carson Palmer has been drafted in as replacement QB - he is a quick learner and I think his style will work well and allow the Raiders to beat a sad looking Vikings.


Bills v Dolphins
Back Dolphins -1.5 ATS


This is a grudge match but the Phin's are trending upwards and meeting the Bills on the way down. This will be a tight game but expect the running and defence of the Phin's to holds out. These teams have met countless times over the year an the Bills will fancy taking home the points; but they are meeting a different Miami Dolphins this time; who will dominate the running game.


Cowboys v Redskins
Back Cowboys -7 ATS


Well Tony Romo is playing the game of his life at the moment an if the Cowboys could wind it back then they would be looking like a good play-off team. But this is a clincher for either team towards the play-offs and I feel the Cowboys under Romo have far too much fire power and in addition they are now getting their defence in order. The Redskins look liker a team that has lost its way and is struggling to find its style.

The Thursday Night Late Game

JETS V BRONCOS


Back NY JETS -6 @ 10/11 with your local friendly bookie.




The loser of this game will kiss good-bye to the play-offs - so what I hear you say; perhaps. But Rex Ryan will only want the JETS to win , while the Broncos are still toying around with their structure.


The Broncos have totally dominated some of these matches in the past. But New York have managed to stage late come backs - but all close games. I am not a fan of the over hyped Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez , to me, is just not good enough.


The JETS will run the ball all day on this - they will beat them there. Tebow will try to air it , but I think the JETS have a large advantage in defence which should tell over the rookie to return some interceptions. Mark Sanchez only needs to play well and not give the ball away - but that seems to be asking a great deal these days. Sloppy mistakes have cost the JETS dearly , but they keep on plugging away with LT. At minus 6 I like the JETS .

The Monday Night Game

Apologies for not blogging my late picks last night. Wifi went down.

** late update mcnabb not starting**

Great weekend so far! but on to Monday Night Football.

Packers v Vikings

This Monday Night match seems a hopeless exercise for the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers is heading for the best QB season in NFL history.
Rodgers performance was stated by Vikings defensive end Jared Allen by saying, "The dude is throwing balls where most people don't throw 'em."
It is very true; should the Packers and Rogers dominate at home this evening it will be a very tough four-quarters for the Vikings, with the venerable and questionable (cough, cough) Donovan McNabb as QB coming off a bye week..perhaps as starter.

Only 22 days ago, Rodgers opened a 33-27 victory over the Vikings by completing 13 consecutive passes. At halftime, he was 17-for-20, with the only incompletion coming on two drops and a spike. He's completing 72.5 percent of his passes, with a virtual telepathic relationship with his targets. Tonight seems axiomatic that the Cheeseheads will win and win big. But I am not that sure, as Nikki Lauda once said he likes to "win every race by going as slowly as possible".

The Cheeseheads need to think play-off and getting their players to the Superbowl in the best shape possible. That's why I believe tonight the Packers will fall short of the required spread. The Packers gave up 435 total yards at Minnesota on Oct. 23, when they held on for a 33-27 win. Adrian Peterson gained 175 of the Vikings season-high 218 rushing yards in that contest as he should cause more trouble tonight.

Back Vikings +13 or +13.5 in places.

Value; GB Points over 31.5

JAGUARS V COLTS
BACKS JAGS -3

I am with the Jags on this one , the colts cant find at rhythm on any form of play and are now becoming the whipping boys. Happy that the Jags have to over come just three points in the spread. So the JAGS for me
and Jones Drew , the pint sized, running back to make it a winning bet.


BILLS V COWBOYS
BACK COWBOYS - 5.5
The Bills have hit a skid and they are about to hit another barrier in Tony Romo. Dallas are now at least a touch-down better that the Bills. The Bills will bounce back after this but the JETS have showed everyone how to beat them in the air and on the ground.

STEELERS V BENGALS
Well Ben knows the Bengals like no other and I think that he will be in a position to put some plays on the board. The thing is that the Bengals start off well but have been found out against better teams who can be , wait for it , consistent.
Back the Steelers -3

DOLPHINS V REDSKINS
BACK REDSKINS -4

This should go to the Skins who are now putting out some form of play together to demonstrate to their fans that they at least have some hope of getting through the season with some wins. The Dolphins have showed some form in recent weeks , but their season is over unless Marino kits out for them again and hits pay-dirt like there is no tomorrow. But that's just a dream like their win over the skins tomorrow.

BACK WITH LATE GAME PICKS!

The Thursday Night Game

Chargers v Raiders

Chargers at home so grab the -6.5 available with 32 Red, Betdaq , WBX

The Chargers are at home and vying for a three-way tie in their division along with the Chiefs and Raiders. The Raiders are relying on their second string QB who has given away 6 interceptions in his last 2 games.

In addition I think if Norv Turner read some of John Maddens play-book he might be able to come up with a consistent bunch of players. Its all tight-running-plays or 40 yards passes, no grinding in between and that confuses the Chargers more that their opponents.

Oakland shoot themselves in the foot with their penalties and general lack if discipline. Both teams fail to finish out fourth quarters but I think the Raiders lack discipline and their faltering in the fourth quarter will be the difference.

Go Chargers !

The Monday Night Game Week 9

Bears v Eagles

Back Bears +8.5 Pts available

Tonight will be a great game between a pass-offence and a run-offence; the difference will revolve around interceptions and of course the dreaded fumble. I feel the Bears are not +8.5 worse off than the Eagles. In fact, I think the Bears could beat the Eagles if Mr Cutler is on form, but he has more hormonal episodes than a teenage schoolgirl who has lost her first crush; to her best friend. Therefore, I will be taking the +8.5 cushion to round off a good weekend on the NFL. At a push I would say that total points at 47 is far too high, but I won’t play that market. Good luck on your pick, I think that a moderate passing game by the Bears armed with a heavy run game should undo the Eagles. If you also look at Vicks record against the Bears is tells its own story, he does not do well against this offence - he hates to run against them as they have all too often put him out of action with a backstop defensive play.

NFL Week 9 Picks

We had a great Sunday night last week and a poor result on Monday, but lets look forward to this Sunday and hit Profit Street. There are great games this weekend such as the Bills v Jets , Pats v Giants and the Bucs v Saints, but I am not looking at those games, too close to call. I will, as usual, post the late game on Sunday night; but here are the Week 8 handicap picks:-

Miami v Chief

Back Chiefs 

I have a tough time getting the Chiefs right, but this look like a good opportunity for them to win again at home and set a new win record since their 2003 9-0 start to NFL season. The Dolphins will rely so much on Reggie Bush and his running, but those legs aren’t what they used to be and this is the time when running backs start to feel the mid-season toll on their body. The same way we coach potatoes feel the heat after a 14 inch pepperoni special with extra chilli. The Chief will pick-off the second string Dolphins QB and secure win , if not a blow out.

SanFrancisco v Redskins

Back the 49'ers

This will be a close game but I expect the running Frank Gore to blast a couple of TD's past the Redskins defence. The Redskins will not look to run, only pass play as their run game has suffered miserably of late due to what I can only describe as sloppy execution of plays and lack of follow through by their centres.

San Francisco is looking to win 6 in a row, a feet not done in 14 years. But Alex Smith the QB is a guy who can make play happen and I feel the 49'ers will do just that.

Green Bay v Chargers

Back Green Bay

I am sorry but Green Bay are at least one full TD better than any team in the league, even given a 14 point kicking in the first half of a game they have shown an ability to come back and win. I am taking this as my best bet of the weekend; the Packers are 8-1 all-time against the Charges and have won the last 5 meetings. Green Bay is coming off a bye week and the Chargers are coming off a short week. Green Bay usually expects to bag a win after their bye-week, unlike the Chargers who really need to wave Norv goodbye. 

Monday Night NFL Week 8

I hope you enjoyed last nights games, I had 6 picks and 4 winners. I still like the Bills for the Big One!!


Pick:- Back Chargers - 3

Well for 6 weeks we had a Monday Night winning bet, until last week. The loss was inevitable, but not in the way it worked out with the form being completely turned over.

Tonight’s match see the Kansas City Chiefs face the San Diego Chargers and the Chargers are at home in what is a Division game. The Chargers last game against the JETS took so much out of them, and, they also lost by giving the game away at the last hurdle.

Tonight is different due to the Division crunching aspect, the Chargers will win this, but it’s going to be tough. The Chargers need to beat the spread of -3 - I am confident they will, with change in the bag. Philip Rivers must have learned his lesson from last week and keep the ball tighter to avoid further humiliation by handing out interceptions, especially when they are returned for touchdowns.


Back Chargers - 3


LINK to San Diego Union Tribune

Week 8 Late game

Well what a rivalry we have here and quite frankly a very puzzling game, as both teams are inconsistent. But its a big,big,big game. However the Eagles are at home and I expect them to dominate. - Back Eagles on the spread -3 pts.

Week 8 NFL

Well last week was a very unusual week in the NFL. With a few games really turning form on its head. This week should see normality return and I feel the below four games represent profitable prospects.


Redskins v Bills
Back Bills -6 pts at 10/11


If the Bills bring their run game then the Redskins will struggle on defence. The stats look good for the BILLS as their QB Fitzpatrick is throwing steady numbers. Like Brady he mixes the plays and that has been a large part of the success story in Buffalo - but now its time to push for that playoff spot with the JETS floundering.


Colts v Titans
Back Titans -8.5 pts at 10/11

The Colts are a broken team, they are playing for the bottom (Top Draft) and nothing is going to turn it for them this season. The mother of all passing games was thrown at them this week and now it will be the Titans steady run game, that was shell shocked last week, but should now recover against the pointless Colts.


Vikings v Panthers
Back Panthers -3 pts at 10/11

The trident of Newton, Williams and Smith should see the second string QB for the Vikings lose another game by more than three points. I like the Vikings but I don't like McNabb, has added nothing to their play and I expect nothing from him. So many teams need fresh blood this season and the Vikings certainly could do with young steady QB. Panthers should have too much in the run and they do a good job of stopping Petersons runs from the centre.


Lions v Broncos
Back Lions -3 pts at 10/11


Tebow or not Tebow, that is the question. Well if the Lions play to form then it will not matter. I think the Lions have so much more than Denver in their depth of plays and breadth of passing will allow them to dominate this match. The Broncos can play well , but every dog has its day and the Lions will roar out of town with the points.

PS The Texans v the Jaguars overs is 40 , that's a back for me.

The Monday Night Game Week 7

Well Monday Night matches certainly do come better that this matchup, but lets not beat-up the Jaguars just yet. Tonight's game revolves around the run game - if the Jags cant run the ball with Jones-Drew , then they will give it to their Rookie QB.

If they do that then the Ravens will chew the Jags to pieces , the Ravens have a fantastic defence that quite often bewilders centres and QB's - especially when they move formations before the snap.Sometimes Joe Flacco has been described as a headless chicken - and i think some games warrant that. I however think it is immaturity, if there are no receiver open; then dont force it into a spot, throw it away - learning curve for Joe is a little longer than others. As Joe Madden would say, when two teams are well matched then the one with the best defence wins. These teams are not close so i expect that the Ravens -9 is good. In addition I think the 38.5 total is too low

Ravens -9 pts
Total Points - over 38.5

Late Game Week 7 post

Well four picks this week, 2 losing, one push and one winner. NOT GOOD! Tonight i feel the Colts at +13.5 is not too big. BIG BET for me on this.Painter and Garcon have forged a good relation for the Colts. Peyton as manager is leaving it to his sideline staff, while the Saints will win they will also beat the spread.Peyton runs that team from his physical presence - start to finish, but they wont miss that tonight.

Back Drew and the Saints -13.5 pts

I will be going for 7 winning monday night picks in a row, tune in later.

NFL Handicap betting Week 7

NFL Handicap betting Week 7

Texans v Titans

Back Titans -3

With the Texans down a star receiver this looks like a good opportunity for Chris Johnson to dominate a home game. Texas are on a high at present and finding good form in passing, but their run game is sluggish at best. Hasselbeck is a good QB for the Titans and is beginning to get to know the offence – when to throw and when to hand off to CJ. Titans for me.

Seahawks v Browns

Back Browns -3

Seahawks Tavaris Jackson may not be available for this, so the second string QB for the Seahawks takes over. With Jackson playing I would go with the Hawks, but each team has a similar run game, so this will be down to patience and passing and experience. While Browns QB Mc Coy needs to work on his accuracy I think he will lead the team to beat the spread and send the Hawks packing. Unless the starting QB for the Hawks makes a massive recovery. Browns for me here at –3.

Chiefs’ v Raiders

Back Raiders –4.5

Raiders are playing well and this is one of those games where the rivalry between these two sleeping giants begins to simmer and then boil over. Al Davis knew what it took to beat the Chiefs and that was to “beat” the Chiefs. But times have changed and thus Carson Palmer will make his debut for the Raiders on Sunday.I think he will be a good go-to-guy for Campbell.

I don’t like Matt Cassel; he is an ex Patriot, but a good QB at times. This game will turn on the number of interceptions and the Chiefs will lose that battle. Back the Raiders.

Rams v Cowboys

Back Cowboys –13

This is a must win game for Dallas, The Rams season is over. The Cowboys should slam the Rams into the middle of next week. DeMarcusware should stop the Rams QB from passing in the D and as long as Dallas stop the Rams run game then they should beat the spread.

Monday Night NFL Week 6

Well last night I gave four bets before the late game, three lost and one was a push. However I hope you kept the faith as I gave you the Bears as my triple point bet and the Overs. Both came up to clear the books and put me ahead.

Tonight I go for my 6th Monday Night win in a row. Bet Fred has the JETS at -6.5 at 10/11 - Take it.

The Dolphins are in free fall and for the most part so are the JETS. But the NFL more than any sport is all about emotion and this is one of the leagues biggest, if not the biggest rivalry.

Mark Sanchez is not the QB to bring the JETS into the Superbowl; I hope he is gone by the end of the season, being a JETS fan I would prefer to see someone with more ability mentally and physically. Chad Henne is a good QB but he is out tonight so Moore the replacement is unknown, but the Dolphins are all about the run game. I think the JETS will deal with their run game and give the Dolphins a lesson in pass play, as long as Sanchez does not lose his cool. If he does I hope Rex Ryan drops him and gives old wildly Brunell a run. Watch out for LT running the ball for the JETS , he should set up the red-zone options for the JETS.

NFL Week 6

Tweet me here @Stayedclassy


All handicap spread bets: Bills +3 , Colts +7 , Patriots –6.5 , Texans +7.5. If your greedy try the overs in the Steelers v Jaguars game of 40 Points.

 Bill’s +3 v Giants.

The Bills surprised us in week 1 and 2, week 3 we thought hmmm could be something here, week 4 ad 5 we are thinking that they are a serious team and a play-off contender. The Giants for me are lacking a run game, passing is fine but receiving has been a problem. They have got the cannon (Ely) but certainly no one to consistently be the go-to-guy. I like the Bills and I like their mix-match play. +3 for me is too good to miss.

COLTS +7 V Bengals'

Well the Colts look like a sorry bunch, their second string QB was up and down last week in performance. But his fourth quarter plays cost them the game and that is where the Colts now need to improve. I think the +7 point advantage is nice to have and perhaps +7.5 might become available. The Colts have won all of the last 7 meetings, this may not be number 8 but should be within the handicap as the Bengals’ equally lack consistency, and the Colts have receivers, but need the correct passes to be played.

PATRIOTS -6.5 V Cowboys

Back the Patriots here, there run game last week was excellent and their pass play was sublime. Being a JETS fan that is hard for me to write. The Cowboys are dangerous and this will be no walk in the park, but they lack the edge in the red-zone and that is something that Brady has in abundance. Greene Ellis should put in another good running performance and Romos' arm will be put to the test with the quick blitz play that NE are fine tuning. Tight game but Brady to run out a winner in the fourth.

TEXANS +7.5 v Ravens

The Ravens have a long winning record against the Texans, while this may continue I like the +7.5 as the spread for the Texans. Joe Flacco relies so much on his defence that at times that he is akin to a headless chicken running behind the D. Matt Schaub is a wonderful QB, very quick and professional, but needs his team to catch up with him at times. They run the ball well, but that will not be the case on Sunday, this however presents a good decoy for the pass game. Back the Texans on the spread..


There will be late game Blog and as ever a Monday Night NFL pick to make it , hopefully, 6 in a row!

Week 5 NFL Picks

Well two winners from four. I was also right about the Oakland match , great to see them win.
Anyway , just to make it a profitable night I am backing the Packers -4.5 at 4/5 to beat the Falcons away. In know this is late , but the run offence by the packers and their picking percentage will hinder the pass play Falcons. If you stay up for this enjoy it ! I am going to bed and hoping that Al Davis will push my bet well over the line.




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Updating this on Saturday I heard the news that AL Davis (Just Win Baby) died. I am taking Oakland out of my picks ,  I think it will now be a very different game. But that's a decision you can take. Instead I like the JETS +9.5 @ 8/11. RIP Al.

Here with this weeks NFL picks, so far this season I have given 17 bets , with 11 winning. Also check out Mulldogs general betting blog : http://mully1.wordpress.com/ and for more NFL there is also http://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/ Best of luck ! and remember we only ask them to Just Win Baby!

Vikings v Cardinals

Vikings –3

The Vikings are 0-4, if they lose another game then Donovan McNabb will be dropped and we all know how the original prima donna of the NFL will take that.

Each team has losing records, in fact, the Cardinals have won only one game and lost three, hardly inspiring. I think the Vikings problem is not scoring, but defending leads and I think that the Defensive co-ordinator is more at risk than the QB if they lose this match up.Back the Vikings to beat the spread of minus 3, at home.

Raiders v Texans

Texans –5.5

Texans will win this by at least a touchdown. That’s all I should write but essentially the Raiders have been lucky and I think the luck ends with Matt Shaub. He is looking every bit the Superbowl QB and Fosters running coupled with Tate will be a big problem for the Raiders. I think the Texans are playing like New England four years ago, great running plays and drawing in the defence to pass wide or under. Back the Texans to beat the spread at –5.5.

Titans v Steelers

Titans +3

The Titans are a surprise to everyone, except me. I love this team and the spirit they possess. With one of the best running backs the league has ever had in Johnson I think that the Superbowl hung-over Steelers will struggle. Ben Roethlisberger is known to play wild and throw… oh …so late. This suits the Titans and they are well schooled at picking passes, especially wild ones and returning them for points. Expect a close game but I like the Titans +3.

Chief v Colts

Colts –2

If the Colts do not beat the spread here I will buy a hat and eat it. Kansas are creaking after losing 3, but the Colts have lost 4. However, the Colts recent losses were close games and against great opposition. I think Curtis Painter played well last week as the 2^nd string QB for the Colts, we will see more of him in this game. The Colts practice pass defence and are quite good at it, which is a problem for the long pass-addict Matt Cassel.

Back the Colts -2

Monday Night Game Week 4

We have won all of our three Monday Night Game bets - but this one is especially difficult. That’s why I feel backing overs at 40 Total Points is the best bet.

The Colts have no Manning and they look to start Painter who is the official 3rd QB, personally I think the4th QB Orlovsky is much better having spent the summer with the Colts. In any event Tampa should win, they are playing really well against teams whose form has stood the test. Their running game is impressive and their blitz against a rookie QB will be inexorable.

But Dallas should not throw 24 point leads, Vikings should not drop 4 games in a row after leading 3 at HT by 17+ points, and the Lions should not be 4-0. It a bizarre season and last nights Jets v Ravens game summed it up. So sit back and watch what may be steamroller running wild on the Colts; or a surprise package in Painter or Orlovsky, with the commentariat touting a new Marino afterwards.

Back Total Match points over 40 (Even money available)

4 bets last night with 2 winners and 2 losers, the Cowboys blew a big lead and the Lions achived a Franchise record breaking comback. But no damage done to the wallet and tonight should bring home the bacon.

PS.....Some of you asked why I quote Al Davis , he is the CEO of the Raiders and has been since the time of Moses - a wonderful Amabassador for the NFL and America.

The NFL Week 4 picks

Well I posted 7 bets last week with 6 winners (archived), so hopefully the below picks continue the run. Week 4 now, teams and strategies should have settled but it is a strange season so far, with so many teams playing two different halves and falling at the last quarter. By the way at the bottom of the page is a very interesting Statfox link for NFL underdogs given to me by @NC1895 and the Oddschecker link is here Oddschecker Link

Vikings v Chiefs (Double)

Back Vikings – 2

Back over 39.5

The Vikings run offence will be the key here as they try to compensate for McNabb slooooow start. The Vikings in their last three games have thrown away a lead of over 17 points, to lose! But the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball against this defence leaving them exposed in the air; to a team that’s expert at reading plays and picking off passes.

Steelers v Texans

Back Texans – 4

Basically the Steelers are like a team who is on a permanent Superbowl hangover. The Texans at home are clinical and get down the field pretty quick, too quick for the Steelers who rely on Troy to plug the back. Ben isn’t passing too well and the Texans are at least a TD better.

Lions v Cowboys

Back Cowboys –2

The Dallas Cowboys have finally got their act together but Romo has been battered in the process and who knows if he will be ready for Sunday. Their back up QB is more than capable and the Lions will struggle against the home team who, under Ryan, have marshalled their defence into a good operation, but need their offence to wake up to Romo. Romo in my view will make a great head coach. How encouraging is it to see your QB berate receivers when the play is not carried out accurately.

New England v Raiders

Back New England –4

Tom Brady will be piiiiiiieesssed at last weeks farce, losing 21 points to the Bills. He knows the Raider so well and even though this is Al ‘Just Win Baby’ I think Bill Beliache will have a plan to defeat the Raiders and I think it starts will Wes Welker down the middle with lots of tight-end plays…and Tom Brady

Statfox Link - Good read:- Statfox Link is here

Just Win Baby!

Monday Night NFL Weel 3

Cowboys v Redskins

I feel comfortable about going into this game with +3 as a Redskin. Tony Romo’s team is 10/11 at -3, I say he is 10/11 to finish the game! He is the undrafted QB for the Texans that has drawn a very high degree of loyalty notwithstanding that he has only achieved 3 pro-bowls in his career. Now take Rex Grossman of the Redskins, he has been understudy to many NFL star QB’s and is only now receiving his chance to shine.

The Cowboys are mediocre, except nobody outside of Dallas thinks that. The Redskins have been honing a team over the last 5-years and I think that are now on the cusp of producing a good playoff team. Dallas suffers from leaks at the back, soppy run defence and erratic offence. The Redskins are a good old AFC Team that runs, passes and defends, this will overcome the Cowboys and if not the spread will.

Back the Redskins at +3

Sunday Week 3 NFL Picks

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Late Pick - The spread on the Colts is silly , too long , take the 10.5 and also back the overs seperately. This will be a high points game and i expect the colts to be a lot closer  this week than any other.

Back Colts +10.5
Back over 39 points




Dolphins v Browns

Lay the Browns at - 2 on the spread. Miami away are a different proposition and I think coach Sparano is having serious problems with this teams offensive pass play and rush defence. The Browns are up n' coming and have been progressing nicely, beating off the Colts and silly mistakes allowed the Bengal’s back into last weeks match. But the Dog Pound faithful will be looking to run the ball through Miami but won't expose their defensive middle.

New England v Bills

This is simple if you can get the Patriots on the spread below 6.5 or even on the 7 then take it. The Patriots know the Bills as well as anyone and Tom Brady will be looking to cut through the lean defensive backs by getting Welker to split the centre and create holes wide for receivers and the RB. Why are the match points so high, well that’s because this will be a Brady shoot-out.

Packers v Bears

For me the game of the day is my NY JETS V Raiders but for all you Sky fans I think the Packers will be heading into soldier field to take the points from the Bears. At -4 the Packers should be able to again teach the Bears that this is their division for some time to come.

Conclusion

Lay  Browns - 2 and the overs if your greedy.

Back New England - 6.5 and 7 in places

Back Packers - 4

JUST WIN BABY!

Some of you have been complaining about the skinny cheerleaders on my Blog so for all of  you Tubbylovers here you go!

WEEK 2 MONDAY NIGHT NFL

Well after seeing the Vikings blow a 17 point lead and the Eagles a 10, not to mention Buffalo's near game winning comeback of the century, who knows what tonight brings. I think it will bring a calm serene Eli Manning easing his way through the Rams like the consistent passer he is. The Giants run offensive and defence should be able to deal with the Rams on both side of the field.The Rams QB has been less than impressive and i think he will struggle in a noisy Meadowlands where the crowd act as an extra receiver.

But I do not believe that the Giants will have it all their own way as Spanuolo as coach of the Rams knows the formations in the defence and given that he spent so mcuh time at the Giants that is a problem.But the spread of -6.5 is to be taken as the Giants should overcome this weak offense.

 I will take the points over also, as this will be a high score game and the 42.5 looks beatable.The last time the Rams won here was in 2001 and I do not see that being broken as the Giants can ill afford to lose the first two of the season.

Giants -6.5
Points over 42.5


JUST WIN BABY !

Week 2 NFL Sunday - The late game!

Well apologies for the Vikings dropping a 17-point half time lead or the Colts not creating a touchdown out of their four field goals. As I speak to you NE are playing well but I cannot help thinking that Week 2 and Week 1 has seen some games swing so much with late comebacks and collapses that something around the NFL lockout must be the considered.

Tonight Michael Vick plays his old team the Falcons, but Vick is a new man and has completely shown remorse and repents for his social transgression. But outside of the man is the game and I think the man is going to falter in Atlanta but his team will lift the Eagles over the line to make up for his nerves.

Matt Ryan as QB has shown promise and array of weapons in his armoury but I feel that he is a long play guy and not near as smart as Vick. Vick can pass, long, short , hand off and most importantly run the ball like a linebacker.

So tonight I will be expecting the Eagles to win a close game. But only if Vick gets past the emotional test and relies on his instinct which is what he said he is trying to do.

Just Win Baby

NFL Week 2 Picks

Tampa Bay has not lost a game against the Vikings in regular season since 2001. Yes 2001 was the last time! Tampa lead 4-1 in the last 5 games. So why do I feel the Purple People Eaters will dominate Tampa Bay. Well McNabb needs to settle the home crowd and start passing, but Peterson running the ball for the Vikings is like a juggernaut being driven by Jimmie Johnson. Just as you think you cant take more pounding, McNabb then throws a long ball that stretches your defence to the limit.

Tampa has proved that they are in trouble against the run and I think McNabb will also be able to spread the play given that he will be more confident at home after last week’s opener. Josh Freeman at QB may have had a career high last week at QB but the Tampa run offensive was about as effective as a rubber hammer.

Back the Vikings at –3

Hard to believe that Peyton Manning is not filling the QB sport at the Colts. But Kerry Collins is a real professional passer and I think the Colt’s will get past the +2 point spread when they play the Browns at home. The Colts have not lost two in a row for 13 years and last loss to the Browns in 1994.

Kerry needs to be protected and the Colt’s D needs to get their act together to give him the time he needs because Kerry will not run. But the receivers for the Colts are amongst the most disciplined in the NFL and I think the spread is wrong. The Browns will use the run all day long, but I think that this tactic is so predictable that the Colts will have a plan to stop this and counter over the top in the air.

Back the Colts at + 2

I will follow up with a late game pick and of course our Monday Night NFL selection.

In the immortal words of Al Davis

 “Just Win Baby!”