The NFL Week 4 picks

Well I posted 7 bets last week with 6 winners (archived), so hopefully the below picks continue the run. Week 4 now, teams and strategies should have settled but it is a strange season so far, with so many teams playing two different halves and falling at the last quarter. By the way at the bottom of the page is a very interesting Statfox link for NFL underdogs given to me by @NC1895 and the Oddschecker link is here Oddschecker Link

Vikings v Chiefs (Double)

Back Vikings – 2

Back over 39.5

The Vikings run offence will be the key here as they try to compensate for McNabb slooooow start. The Vikings in their last three games have thrown away a lead of over 17 points, to lose! But the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball against this defence leaving them exposed in the air; to a team that’s expert at reading plays and picking off passes.

Steelers v Texans

Back Texans – 4

Basically the Steelers are like a team who is on a permanent Superbowl hangover. The Texans at home are clinical and get down the field pretty quick, too quick for the Steelers who rely on Troy to plug the back. Ben isn’t passing too well and the Texans are at least a TD better.

Lions v Cowboys

Back Cowboys –2

The Dallas Cowboys have finally got their act together but Romo has been battered in the process and who knows if he will be ready for Sunday. Their back up QB is more than capable and the Lions will struggle against the home team who, under Ryan, have marshalled their defence into a good operation, but need their offence to wake up to Romo. Romo in my view will make a great head coach. How encouraging is it to see your QB berate receivers when the play is not carried out accurately.

New England v Raiders

Back New England –4

Tom Brady will be piiiiiiieesssed at last weeks farce, losing 21 points to the Bills. He knows the Raider so well and even though this is Al ‘Just Win Baby’ I think Bill Beliache will have a plan to defeat the Raiders and I think it starts will Wes Welker down the middle with lots of tight-end plays…and Tom Brady

Statfox Link - Good read:- Statfox Link is here

Just Win Baby!

Monday Night NFL Weel 3

Cowboys v Redskins

I feel comfortable about going into this game with +3 as a Redskin. Tony Romo’s team is 10/11 at -3, I say he is 10/11 to finish the game! He is the undrafted QB for the Texans that has drawn a very high degree of loyalty notwithstanding that he has only achieved 3 pro-bowls in his career. Now take Rex Grossman of the Redskins, he has been understudy to many NFL star QB’s and is only now receiving his chance to shine.

The Cowboys are mediocre, except nobody outside of Dallas thinks that. The Redskins have been honing a team over the last 5-years and I think that are now on the cusp of producing a good playoff team. Dallas suffers from leaks at the back, soppy run defence and erratic offence. The Redskins are a good old AFC Team that runs, passes and defends, this will overcome the Cowboys and if not the spread will.

Back the Redskins at +3

Sunday Week 3 NFL Picks

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Late Pick - The spread on the Colts is silly , too long , take the 10.5 and also back the overs seperately. This will be a high points game and i expect the colts to be a lot closer  this week than any other.

Back Colts +10.5
Back over 39 points




Dolphins v Browns

Lay the Browns at - 2 on the spread. Miami away are a different proposition and I think coach Sparano is having serious problems with this teams offensive pass play and rush defence. The Browns are up n' coming and have been progressing nicely, beating off the Colts and silly mistakes allowed the Bengal’s back into last weeks match. But the Dog Pound faithful will be looking to run the ball through Miami but won't expose their defensive middle.

New England v Bills

This is simple if you can get the Patriots on the spread below 6.5 or even on the 7 then take it. The Patriots know the Bills as well as anyone and Tom Brady will be looking to cut through the lean defensive backs by getting Welker to split the centre and create holes wide for receivers and the RB. Why are the match points so high, well that’s because this will be a Brady shoot-out.

Packers v Bears

For me the game of the day is my NY JETS V Raiders but for all you Sky fans I think the Packers will be heading into soldier field to take the points from the Bears. At -4 the Packers should be able to again teach the Bears that this is their division for some time to come.

Conclusion

Lay  Browns - 2 and the overs if your greedy.

Back New England - 6.5 and 7 in places

Back Packers - 4

JUST WIN BABY!

Some of you have been complaining about the skinny cheerleaders on my Blog so for all of  you Tubbylovers here you go!

WEEK 2 MONDAY NIGHT NFL

Well after seeing the Vikings blow a 17 point lead and the Eagles a 10, not to mention Buffalo's near game winning comeback of the century, who knows what tonight brings. I think it will bring a calm serene Eli Manning easing his way through the Rams like the consistent passer he is. The Giants run offensive and defence should be able to deal with the Rams on both side of the field.The Rams QB has been less than impressive and i think he will struggle in a noisy Meadowlands where the crowd act as an extra receiver.

But I do not believe that the Giants will have it all their own way as Spanuolo as coach of the Rams knows the formations in the defence and given that he spent so mcuh time at the Giants that is a problem.But the spread of -6.5 is to be taken as the Giants should overcome this weak offense.

 I will take the points over also, as this will be a high score game and the 42.5 looks beatable.The last time the Rams won here was in 2001 and I do not see that being broken as the Giants can ill afford to lose the first two of the season.

Giants -6.5
Points over 42.5


JUST WIN BABY !

Week 2 NFL Sunday - The late game!

Well apologies for the Vikings dropping a 17-point half time lead or the Colts not creating a touchdown out of their four field goals. As I speak to you NE are playing well but I cannot help thinking that Week 2 and Week 1 has seen some games swing so much with late comebacks and collapses that something around the NFL lockout must be the considered.

Tonight Michael Vick plays his old team the Falcons, but Vick is a new man and has completely shown remorse and repents for his social transgression. But outside of the man is the game and I think the man is going to falter in Atlanta but his team will lift the Eagles over the line to make up for his nerves.

Matt Ryan as QB has shown promise and array of weapons in his armoury but I feel that he is a long play guy and not near as smart as Vick. Vick can pass, long, short , hand off and most importantly run the ball like a linebacker.

So tonight I will be expecting the Eagles to win a close game. But only if Vick gets past the emotional test and relies on his instinct which is what he said he is trying to do.

Just Win Baby

NFL Week 2 Picks

Tampa Bay has not lost a game against the Vikings in regular season since 2001. Yes 2001 was the last time! Tampa lead 4-1 in the last 5 games. So why do I feel the Purple People Eaters will dominate Tampa Bay. Well McNabb needs to settle the home crowd and start passing, but Peterson running the ball for the Vikings is like a juggernaut being driven by Jimmie Johnson. Just as you think you cant take more pounding, McNabb then throws a long ball that stretches your defence to the limit.

Tampa has proved that they are in trouble against the run and I think McNabb will also be able to spread the play given that he will be more confident at home after last week’s opener. Josh Freeman at QB may have had a career high last week at QB but the Tampa run offensive was about as effective as a rubber hammer.

Back the Vikings at –3

Hard to believe that Peyton Manning is not filling the QB sport at the Colts. But Kerry Collins is a real professional passer and I think the Colt’s will get past the +2 point spread when they play the Browns at home. The Colts have not lost two in a row for 13 years and last loss to the Browns in 1994.

Kerry needs to be protected and the Colt’s D needs to get their act together to give him the time he needs because Kerry will not run. But the receivers for the Colts are amongst the most disciplined in the NFL and I think the spread is wrong. The Browns will use the run all day long, but I think that this tactic is so predictable that the Colts will have a plan to stop this and counter over the top in the air.

Back the Colts at + 2

I will follow up with a late game pick and of course our Monday Night NFL selection.

In the immortal words of Al Davis

 “Just Win Baby!”